IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Reliance Capital AMC's Deputy CEO Himanshu Vyapak resigns: Sources

The Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Reliance Capital's AMC, Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management, has resigned from the fund house, two industry sources told Moneycontrol.

Insider sources at Reliance AMC confirmed the news.

The fund house, however, declined to officially comment on Vyapak's resignation.

If market grapevine is to be believed, then Vyapak may join Yes Mutual Fund.

A gold medalist in MBA, Vyapak joined Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited (RNLAM) in Oct 2003. He has been instrumental in expanding RNLAM's footprints in both domestic & international territories. 

He was also actively involved in various industry-level initiatives and is also a member on the ARN committee of Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), Advisory Committee of FLAB India.

Apart from Reliance Mutual Fund, he was also involved with other businesses across Reliance Capital group like credit cards & unsecured loans. 

Prior to Reliance Capital, he held key positions with ICICI Bank and Escorts Finance across liability and asset verticals.

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Net equity mutual fund inflows have fallen for three months in a row. One part to this story is gross equity inflows, or purchases of units by investors in equity and equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS) schemes. That has shown a rising trend. In January, gross inflows were Rs 17,555 crore compared to Rs 15,614 crore in November. Money coming in is a good sign.

But not everyone is buying. People are also redeeming some of their MF investments. This should not be a surprise. Mutual fund schemes have been under-performing, not just in small and mid-cap schemes but also in large-cap schemes. Even SIP investors, who have been a main source for inflows in recent years, may be worried at their portfolio returns. Naturally, there may be investors who want to take some money off the table. The pace of outflows has increased, at Rs 11,397 crore in January compared to Rs 7,921 crore in November. That is a worry.

Now, December and January also saw ELSS inflows jump, due to the tax-planning season, which may continue till the financial year ends. If you consider equity schemes alone, then the decline in inflows is sharper.

In sum, net inflows into equity schemes are showing a declining trend. That can become a concern. Rising gross inflows show there is still a large base of investors who remain committed, while SIP inflows are no doubt a major support. There may be those investors who may be selling in some schemes and buying others.

What should investors do? If investors have a long term financial plan and are being disciplined in their periodic portfolio reviews, then there’s perhaps nothing more they need to do.

What about equity markets? Mutual fund inflows have been a source of support for equity markets, especially when foreign investors were sellers. In January, for example, mutual funds’ net purchases were Rs 6541 crore while foreign institutional investors’ were net sellers at Rs 505 crore. In 2018, mutual funds were net buyers at Rs 1,13,333 crore while FIIs were net sellers at Rs 73,212 crore.

If mutual funds also become net sellers, the fear is the effect that can have on stocks. There are multiple factors that influence equity markets and perhaps, if MFs turn net sellers, other factors could compensate. Still, what can be said is that a period of higher uncertainty lies ahead for the equity markets, if MFs face continued redemption pressure.

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Jet Airways slides 2% after grounding 4 aircraft

Shares of cash-strapped Jet Airways fell as much as 2.2 percent in early trade after the company said it has grounded four aircraft due to non-payment of lease rentals.

"The company is actively engaged with all its aircraft lessors and regularly provides them with updates on efforts undertaken by the company to improve its liquidity," Jet Airways said in a statement on February 7.

Jet Airways added that three aircraft previously grounded for engine normalisation have resumed commercial operations.

The airline has received Rs 258 crore from advanced sale of tickets to its loyalty programme JetPrivilege, according to a PTI report citing an airline spokesperson.

At 09:47 hrs, Jet Airways was quoting at Rs 232.5 on the BSE, down 1.73 percent.

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Cummins India slips 3% despite better Q3 nos; Nomura maintains buy

Share price of Cummins India slipped 3 percent intraday Thursday despite company posted better numbers for the third quarter ended December 2018.

The company reported 8.7 percent jump in its Q3 net profit at Rs 187.1 crore against Rs 172.2 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

Revenue of the company was up 11 percent at Rs 1,503.8 crore against Rs 1,354.7 crore.

Operating profit or EBITDA rose 15 percent at Rs 226.7 crore, while margin at 15.1 percent.

Nomura has maintained buy call on Cummins India with target at Rs 890 per share.

The domestic execution is strong but exports weakened seasonally, while management is cautions on volatility arising from the upcoming general elections, it said.

Clarity on gross margin and export demand trend are the key to monitor, Nomura added.

Macquarie has maintained outperform rating with a target at Rs 1,024 per share.

According to firm, the company delivered in-line performance, with 11 percent topline growth. There is room for topline guidance to be revised upward and remain positive on the domestic growth opportunity.

At 11:00 hrs Cummins India was quoting at Rs 779.65, down Rs 21.50, or 2.68 percent on the BSE.

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Govt has more fiscal space than markets gives it credit for, says Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse

Neelkanth Mishra, MD and India Equity Strategist at Credit Suisse, spoke to CNBC-TV18 about the underperformance of the Indian markets compared to the rest of the emerging markets.

"In January, we saw a reversal of what we saw in Q4 of last calendar year. In January, the underperformance was almost 11 percent because of a weaker rupee and broader market was down and global markets were up sharply," Mishra said on Monday.

According to him, the big pain-point have been the mid and smallcaps mainly because of liquidity and there are uncertainty and stress with respect to the domestic growth story. "As the economy slowed in the last 3-4 months, the pace of sell-off has accelerated," said Mishra.

With regards to the consumption space, Mishra said, "For aggregate consumption number, the best measure is private final consumption (PFC) expenditure number that the GDP data talks about and that has been weak for quite some time. The discretionary numbers have weakened. The end of pay commission has a big role to play here along with stalled income transfer because of low food prices and on top of that some of the demand weakness is also a sign of monetary tightens, lack of liquidity."

Talking about the interim Budget and fiscal deficit, Mishra said, "The government has more fiscal space than the market was giving it credit for. Despite the pay commission getting through, our fiscal deficit has not blown out of proportion."

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Can't disclose black money reports as Par Panel examining 

The Finance Ministry has declined to share copies of three reports on the quantum of black money held by Indians inside the country and abroad, saying they were being examined by a Parliamentary panel and disclosing details will cause a breach of privilege of the House.

These reports were submitted to the government more than four years ago.

The UPA government had commissioned in 2011 the studies by the Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), and the National Institute of Financial Management (NIFM) in Faridabad.

Replying to an RTI query, it said the study reports of the NIPFP, NCAER and NIFM were received by the government on December 30, 2013, July 18, 2014, and August 21, 2014, respectively.

"The reports and government's response to it have been forwarded to Lok Sabha secretariat for placing them before the Standing Committee on Finance," the ministry said.

The Lok Sabha secretariat has informed that the same has been placed before the committee which will examine it, it said in a reply to an RTI application filed by this PTI correspondent.

It denied to share the copies of these reports, saying the disclosure would cause breach of privilege of Parliament and, therefore, the information sought is exempt from disclosure under Section 8 (1) (c) of the Right to Information (RTI) Act.

The section bars information, "the disclosure of which would cause a breach of privilege of Parliament". The reports were submitted to the panel on July 21, 2017.

There is, at present, no official assessment on the quantum of black money in India and abroad.

According to a study by US-based think-tank Global Financial Integrity (GFI), an estimated $770 billion in black money entered India during 2005-2014.

Nearly $165 billion in illicit money exited the country during the same period, the latest report by the global financial watchdog said.

"The issue of black money has attracted a lot of public and media attention in the recent past. So far, there are no reliable estimates of black money generated and held within and outside the country," the Finance Ministry had said while ordering the studies in 2011.

These estimates were based on various unverifiable assumptions and approximations, it had said.

The Terms of Reference (ToR) for the studies included the assessment or survey of unaccounted income and wealth, and profiling the nature of activities engendering money laundering both within and outside the country.

The studies were to identify, among other issues, important sectors of the economy in which unaccounted money was generated and examine the causes and conditions that resulted in the generation.

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IDEAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE

It is a strong start for the Indian indices on Wednesday with Nifty is trading around 10,700.

At 09:17 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 148.83 points at 35741.33, while Nifty is up 41.10 points at 10693.30. About 472 shares have advanced, 299 shares declined, and 35 shares are unchanged. 

Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Bank of Baroda, Bajaj Finserv, Indiabulls Housing, Yes Bank, ICICI Bank are among major gainers on the indices, while losers include Adani Ports, BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hero Moto, Dr Reddy's Lab.

Rupee Opens:

The Indian rupee opened lower by 25 paise at 71.36 per dollar on Wednesday against Tuesday's close 71.11.

On the domestic front, market participants will remain cautious and if there is a change in fiscal deficit target for next year rupee could come under pressure. The US and China launch a critical round of trade talks amid deep differences over U.S. demands for structural economic reforms from Beijing that will make it difficult to reach a deal before a March 2 U.S. tariff hike.

The two sides will meet next door to the White House in the highest-level talks since US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed a 90-day truce in their trade war in December

Global Market :

UK parliament rejects Labour's Brexit amendment :

The proposal, put forward by the opposition Labour Party, was opposed by Prime Minister Theresa May.

British lawmakers voted 327 to 296 on Tuesday against a proposal which called for parliament to consider alternative options to prevent Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

Crude Update:

Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, pressured by a cloudy outlook for the global economy but supported by worries over disruptions to supply from US sanctions on Venezuelan exports.

US markets end mixed:

Wall Street was mixed on Tuesday, with Alphabet, Facebook and other technology-related shares dipping, while a rebound in 3M and other industrials elevated the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Asian markets trade lower:

US stock futures and Asian equities eked out modest gains on Wednesday as investors seized on Apple Inc's earnings and comments from its chief that US-China trade tensions were easing, sending the iPhone maker's shares soaring in after-hours trade.

SGX Nifty:

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India. Nifty futures were trading around 10,693.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Domestic Market : 

Country's largest private sector lender ICICI Bank is likely to show further improvement in earnings with loan growth and net interest income in double digits.

Slippages may moderate and asset quality is likely to be stable in Q3. Profitability is likely to be supported by higher treasury income and pre-provisioning profit during the quarter.

Brokerages expect 5-40 percent on-year growth in profit but sequentially it is expected to show a massive 80-150 percent increase on a low base.

Reliance Securities, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss Securities and Sharekhan expect more than 100 percent increase QoQ in profitability.

Key issues to watch out for

Movement of watch-list accounts

Outlook on asset quality and trend on further relapse from restructured loans

Growth in CASA + retail term deposits

Results on January 30: 

ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Indian Oil Corporation, NTPC, Alembic, Jubilant Foodworks, Jindal Stainless (Hisar), MAS Financial Services, Mahindra Logistics, Chemfab Alkalis, Aavas Financiers, GMM Pfaudler, Security and Intelligence Services (India), GP Petroleums, Arvind SmartSpaces, Diligent Media Corporation, KIOCL.

Here are stocks that are in the news today:

Axis Bank Q3: Profit surges to Rs 1,680.8 crore versus Rs 726 crore; NII rises 18.4 percent to Rs 5,603.6 crore versus Rs 4731.5 crore YoY.

Gross NPA improves to 5.75 percent versus 5.94 percent and net NPA to Rs 2.36 percent versus 2.54 percent QoQ.

HCL Technologies Q3: Profit rises 2.8 percent to Rs 2,611 crore versus Rs 2,540 crore; revenue jumps 5.6 percent to Rs 15,699 crore versus Rs 14,861 crore QoQ. Revenue in constant currency also up 5.6 percent QoQ.

Bank of Baroda Q3: Profit jumps to Rs 471.2 crore versus Rs 111.8 crore; NII grows 7.9 percent to Rs 4,743.2 crore versus Rs 4,394 crore YoY. Net NPA improves to 4.26 percent versus 4.86 percent and gross NPA to 11.01 percent versus 11.78 percent QoQ.

Apar Industries Q3: Profit falls 12.2 percent to Rs 35 crore versus Rs 40 crore; revenue increases 41.4 percent to Rs 2,119 crore versus Rs 1,498.9 crore YoY.

Godrej Consumer Q3: Profit slips 1.5 percent to Rs 424 crore versus Rs 430 crore; revenue increases 3.5 percent to Rs 2,721.9 crore versus Rs 2,630.3 crore YoY.

Granules India Q3: Profit jumps 72.3 percent to Rs 60 crore versus Rs 35 crore; revenue surges 53.8 percent to Rs 631.8 crore versus Rs 410.7 crore YoY.

Ramco Industries Q3: Profit dips 8 percent to Rs 10.7 crore versus Rs 11.7 crore; revenue drops 0.1 percent to Rs 181.3 crore versus Rs 181.4 crore YoY.

DCM Shriram Q3: Consolidated profit rises 5.7 percent to Rs 225 crore versus Rs 212.8 crore; revenue increases 18.6 percent to Rs 2,115.2 crore versus Rs 1,783.7 crore YoY.

Bajaj FinServ Q3: Consolidated profit jumps 16.4 percent to Rs 851 crore versus Rs 730.5 crore; revenue rises 24 percent to Rs 29,611 crore versus Rs 23,807 crore YoY.

KEC International Q3: Profit rises 0.6 percent to Rs 112.4 crore versus Rs 111.8 crore; revenue increases 10.1 percent to Rs 2,646.6 crore versus Rs 2,404.7 crore YoY.

Kingfa Science Q3: Profit falls 35 percent to Rs 530.9 crore versus Rs 817.1 crore; revenue dips 12.7 percent to Rs 16,336.7 crore versus Rs 18,704 crore QoQ.

Yes Bank: Madhu Kapur Group & Rana Kapoor Group to nominate one representative director each on board. Board approves & recommended to RBI an interim special duty. Director on interim special duty to have MD & CEO's responsibilities till March.

DCM Shriram: Company to invest Rs 1,070 crore in Bharuch plant.

Bosch buyback to open of February 6, closing date is February 20

L&T Technology - Offer for Sale opens on January 30 by L&T

Coal India - subsidiarries to buyback shares

Welspun Enterprises Q3: Profit jumps to Rs 43.4 crore versus Rs 15.65 crore; revenue rises to Rs 446.45 crore versus Rs 298.91 crore YoY.

Indiabulls Integrated Services Q3: Profit at Rs 1.5 crore versus loss at Rs 18.16 crore; revenue falls to Rs 42.63 crore versus Rs 45.04 crore YoY.

Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings

UCO Bank: Extraordinary General Meeting of the shareholders of the bank is scheduled to be held on February 20, 2019.

KEI Industries: Conference call will be organised by Edelweiss Securities Limited on February 5.

Graphite India: Company will announce its October-December quarter earnings on February 6.

Mangalam Drugs & Organics : Company will announce its October-December quarter earnings on February 11.

Siemens: Company will announce its October-December quarter earnings on February 6.

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